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Stirling Lions vs Olympic Kingsway — Western Australia NPL 2026

Stirling Lions
Stirling Lions
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Olympic Kingsway
Olympic Kingsway
3/16/2024Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 1Macedonia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Stirling Lions29%
×Draw23%
Olympic Kingsway48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling Lions
1.34
Olympic Kingsway
1.80

Olympic Kingsway creates 34% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 44 away

creates per match

Stirling Lions
1.52
Olympic Kingsway
2.09

allows per match

Stirling Lions
1.51
Olympic Kingsway
1.16

finishing

Stirling Lions+0.00on par
Olympic Kingsway+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Lions ↓

Olympic Kingsway →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stirling Lions or draw
52%
Stirling Lions or Olympic Kingsway
77%
Draw or Olympic Kingsway
71%

Winning margin

Stirling Lions wins by 2+
12%
Olympic Kingsway wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Stirling Lions 1+ goals
74%
Stirling Lions 2+ goals
39%
Stirling Lions 3+ goals
15%
Olympic Kingsway 1+ goals
83%
Olympic Kingsway 2+ goals
54%
Olympic Kingsway 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Stirling Lions (draw refunded)
37%
Olympic Kingsway (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Lions at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.51 · 65 matches

Olympic Kingsway away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Lions attack 1.52 + Olympic Kingsway defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Olympic Kingsway attack 2.09 + Stirling Lions defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stirling Lions scores more
29%
level
23%
Olympic Kingsway scores more
48%

Olympic Kingsway at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Olympic Kingsway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stirling Lions vs Olympic Kingsway

Olympic Kingsway beat Stirling Lions 3-0 in Western Australia NPL on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Macedonia Park in Perth.