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Stevenage vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
Preview
15:00
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
3/6/2027League OneLeague One · Round 34Lamex Stadium
Big match
46%
Stevenage
model favours
46%26%27%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Stevenage46%
×Draw26%
Burton Albion27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.44
Burton Albion
1.04

Stevenage creates 38% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.24
Burton Albion
1.32

allows per match

Stevenage
0.75
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Stevenage-0.24scores less
Burton Albion-0.21scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
73%
Stevenage or Burton Albion
74%
Draw or Burton Albion
54%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
23%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
76%
Stevenage 2+ goals
42%
Stevenage 3+ goals
18%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
65%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
28%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
63%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.24 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Burton Albion attack 1.32 + Stevenage defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stevenage scores more
46%
level
26%
Burton Albion scores more
27%

Stevenage at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
  • Stevenage sit 6, Burton Albion 17 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Stevenage
Direct / counter-attacking
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
44%Possession43%
64%Pass accuracy64%
10.5Shots10.1
1.13xGBiggest gap1.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
StevenageBurton Albion

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Stevenage
2
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 50%
1–02–20–10–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Stevenage
LDLLW
Albion
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stevenage host Burton Albion

March 6, 2027: Stevenage take on Burton Albion in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stevenage host Burton Albion at Lamex Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.