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Stevenage vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
Preview
15:00
Barnsley
Barnsley
2/13/2027League OneLeague One · Round 31Lamex Stadium
Big match
37%
Stevenage
model favours
37%27%36%

91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Stevenage37%
×Draw27%
Barnsley36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.24
Barnsley
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 118 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.17
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Stevenage
0.84
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
64%
Stevenage or Barnsley
73%
Draw or Barnsley
63%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
16%
Barnsley wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
71%
Stevenage 2+ goals
35%
Stevenage 3+ goals
13%
Barnsley 1+ goals
70%
Barnsley 2+ goals
34%
Barnsley 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
51%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.17 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Stevenage defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stevenage scores more
37%
level
27%
Barnsley scores more
36%

Stevenage at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stevenage
Direct / counter-attacking
Barnsley
Balanced
43%Possession52%
64%Pass accuracy74%
10.4Shots13.1
0.99xGBiggest gap1.48
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
StevenageBarnsley

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

4
Stevenage
0
Draws
2
Barnsley
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%
1–01–31–03–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Stevenage
LLWD
Barnsley
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stevenage vs Barnsley — Match Preview

Stevenage face Barnsley on February 13, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stevenage host Barnsley at Lamex Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.