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Šternberk vs HFK Olomouc — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Šternberk
Šternberk
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
HFK Olomouc
HFK Olomouc
8/6/20224. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 1Stadion Šternberk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Šternberk55%
×Draw21%
HFK Olomouc24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šternberk
2.12
HFK Olomouc
1.35

Šternberk creates 57% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 66 away

creates per match

Šternberk
1.79
HFK Olomouc
1.21

allows per match

Šternberk
1.50
HFK Olomouc
2.45

finishing

Šternberk+0.00on par
HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šternberk ↓

HFK Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Šternberk or draw
76%
Šternberk or HFK Olomouc
79%
Draw or HFK Olomouc
45%

Winning margin

Šternberk wins by 2+
33%
HFK Olomouc wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Šternberk 1+ goals
88%
Šternberk 2+ goals
62%
Šternberk 3+ goals
35%
HFK Olomouc 1+ goals
74%
HFK Olomouc 2+ goals
39%
HFK Olomouc 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Šternberk (draw refunded)
69%
HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šternberk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.50 · 56 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šternberk attack 1.79 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.12

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Šternberk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Šternberk scores more
55%
level
21%
HFK Olomouc scores more
24%

Šternberk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Šternberk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Šternberk 4–1 HFK Olomouc

Šternberk beat HFK Olomouc 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Šternberk in Šternberk.