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Start W vs Frigg Oslo FK W — 1. Division Women 2022

Start W
Start W
Preview
11:00
Frigg Oslo FK W
Frigg Oslo FK W
8/8/20261. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 13
74%
Start W
model favours
74%18%8%

Start W sit 1, Frigg Oslo FK W 11 in the table

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Start W74%
×Draw18%
Frigg Oslo FK W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start W
2.13
Frigg Oslo FK W
0.56

Start W creates 280% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Start W
1.59
Frigg Oslo FK W
0.00

allows per match

Start W
1.12
Frigg Oslo FK W
2.67

finishing

Start W+0.00on par
Frigg Oslo FK W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start W ↓

Frigg Oslo FK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Start W or draw
92%
Start W or Frigg Oslo FK W
82%
Draw or Frigg Oslo FK W
26%

Winning margin

Start W wins by 2+
49%
Frigg Oslo FK W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Start W 1+ goals
88%
Start W 2+ goals
63%
Start W 3+ goals
35%
Frigg Oslo FK W 1+ goals
43%
Frigg Oslo FK W 2+ goals
11%
Frigg Oslo FK W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Start W (draw refunded)
90%
Frigg Oslo FK W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Frigg Oslo FK W away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start W attack 1.59 + Frigg Oslo FK W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Frigg Oslo FK W attack 0.00 + Start W defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Start W scores more
74%
level
18%
Frigg Oslo FK W scores more
8%

Start W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Start W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
WWWWW
W
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Start W face Frigg Oslo FK W (1. Division Women)

1. Division Women returns with Start W hosting Frigg Oslo FK W. Match starts August 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.