Start 0–0 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Start

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stabaek

7/26/2020

Eliteserien · Round 10Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Start43%

×Draw23%

Stabaek34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.52

Start

1.74

Stabaek

1.52

Start creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

1.63

1.42

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Start

1.33

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Start

1.42

Stabaek

2.15

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Start-0.33scores less

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Start or draw

66%

Start or Stabaek

77%

Draw or Stabaek

57%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

23%

Stabaek wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

82%

Start 2+ goals

52%

Start 3+ goals

25%

Stabaek 1+ goals

78%

Stabaek 2+ goals

45%

Stabaek 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

56%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.33 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Start defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Start scores more

43%

level

23%

Stabaek scores more

34%

Start at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

K. Tønnessen

Start · D

8.7

Match Events

40'

Kevin Kabran

57'

O. Edvardsen← R. Gall

57'

M. Lundal← H. Vetlesen

58'

S. Skålevik← M. Ramsland

62'

Eman Marković

67'

M. Ugland← E. Marković

67'

E. Børufsen← K. Kabran

82'

F. Valenčič← E. Botheim

84'

Isaac Twum

88'

K. Skaanes← I. Twum

90+2'

K. Kinoshita← E. Bohinen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StartStabaek

Overview

44%Possession56%

18Total Shots14

7Corners6

19Fouls6

Shots

18Total Shots14

5On Target3

8Off Target5

5Blocked6

13Inside Box7

5Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

392Total Passes500

310Accurate Passes411

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls6

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1

Eliteserien: Start 0–0 Stabaek

Start and Stabaek drew 0-0 in Eliteserien on July 26, 2020.

Stabaek controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 18.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.

Start vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Start 0–0 Stabaek