Start 2–6 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Start

FT

2 – 6

HT: 2 – 4

Fredrikstad

E. Marković 33'

C. Cresswell 5'

H. Johansen 64'

T. Ismaheel 55'

V. Bergan 45+2' (OG)

R. Alba 37', 24', 7'

9/26/2021

1. Division · Round 20Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Start43%

×Draw23%

Fredrikstad34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.49

Start

1.71

Fredrikstad

1.49

Start creates 15% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 46 away

2.00

creates per match

1.54

1.44

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Start

2.00

Fredrikstad

1.54

allows per match

Start

1.44

Fredrikstad

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start+0.00on par

Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Start or draw

66%

Start or Fredrikstad

77%

Draw or Fredrikstad

57%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

22%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

82%

Start 2+ goals

51%

Start 3+ goals

24%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

77%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

44%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

56%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 2.00 + Fredrikstad defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Fredrikstad attack 1.54 + Start defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Start scores more

43%

level

23%

Fredrikstad scores more

34%

Start at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

7'

24'

33'

33'

35'

37'

45+2'

V. BerganOwn goal

46'

O. Øby← T. Drage

46'

A. Hadzic← J. Lindström

55'

T. Ismaheel

57'

H. Johansen

62'

P. Reinhardsen← J. Tveita

62'

L. Mares← V. Bergan

64'

H. Johansen

68'

E. Schulze← M. Ugland

68'

S. Sjøkvist← C. Cresswell

71'

N. Solberg← R. Alba

76'

Maikel← T. Ismaheel

83'

M. Moldskred← A. Tjærandsen-Skau

83'

N. Williams← H. Johansen

Start

Fredrikstad

1

4

26

5

23

7

▼

Drage

14

▼

Lindström

20

Åsheim

9

⚽

▼

Johansen

15

⚽3

▼

Alba

12

⚽

▼

Ismaheel

12

Wichne

18

▼

Tveita

3

🥅

▼

15

22

30

10

⚽

Marković

16

▼

Ugland

28

▼

Tjærandse

9

Ramsland

20

⚽

▼

Cresswell

Manager: S. Tjelmeland

62'▲P. Reinhardsen←▼J. Tveita

62'▲L. Mares←▼V. Bergan

68'▲E. Schulze←▼M. Ugland

68'▲S. Sjøkvist←▼C. Cresswell

83'▲M. Moldskred←▼A. Tjærandsen-Skau

Start substitutes

5Reinhardsen14Mares11Schulze21Sjøkvist7Moldskred6Jørgensen17Akinyemi24Derviskadic1Solås

Manager: B. Johansen

46'▲O. Øby←▼T. Drage

46'▲A. Hadzic←▼J. Lindström

71'▲N. Solberg←▼R. Alba

76'▲Maikel←▼T. Ismaheel

83'▲N. Williams←▼H. Johansen

Fredrikstad substitutes

19Øby28Hadzic6Solberg11Maikel24Williams13Karstensen21Jansson

1. Division: Start 2–6 Fredrikstad

Fredrikstad beat Start 6-2 in 1. Division on September 26, 2021.

Goals: C. Cresswell (5'), R. Alba (7', 24', 37'), E. Marković (33'), V. Bergan (45+2' o.g.), T. Ismaheel (55'), H. Johansen (64').

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.

Start vs Fredrikstad — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Start 2–6 Fredrikstad