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Start Brno vs Stará Říše — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Start Brno
Start Brno
PST
14:00
Stará Říše
Stará Říše
4/26/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 20Hřiště Loosova (Brno)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Start Brno63%
×Draw19%
Stará Říše18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start Brno
2.35
Stará Říše
1.17

Start Brno creates 101% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 55 away

creates per match

Start Brno
2.38
Stará Říše
0.95

allows per match

Start Brno
1.38
Stará Říše
2.33

finishing

Start Brno+0.00on par
Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start Brno ↓

Stará Říše →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Start Brno or draw
82%
Start Brno or Stará Říše
81%
Draw or Stará Říše
37%

Winning margin

Start Brno wins by 2+
41%
Stará Říše wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Start Brno 1+ goals
90%
Start Brno 2+ goals
68%
Start Brno 3+ goals
41%
Stará Říše 1+ goals
69%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
33%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Start Brno (draw refunded)
78%
Stará Říše (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start Brno at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start Brno attack 2.38 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.35

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Start Brno defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Start Brno scores more
63%
level
19%
Stará Říše scores more
18%

Start Brno at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Start Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Start Brno face Stará Říše (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D returns with Start Brno hosting Stará Říše. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Start Brno host Stará Říše at Hřiště Loosova (Brno).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.