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Start Brno vs Humpolec — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Start Brno
Start Brno
FT
5 – 4
Humpolec
Humpolec
10/5/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 10Hřiště Loosova (Brno)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Start Brno60%
×Draw20%
Humpolec20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start Brno
2.22
Humpolec
1.22

Start Brno creates 82% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 80 away

creates per match

Start Brno
2.42
Humpolec
1.10

allows per match

Start Brno
1.33
Humpolec
2.02

finishing

Start Brno+0.00on par
Humpolec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start Brno ↓

Humpolec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Start Brno or draw
80%
Start Brno or Humpolec
80%
Draw or Humpolec
40%

Winning margin

Start Brno wins by 2+
37%
Humpolec wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Start Brno 1+ goals
89%
Start Brno 2+ goals
65%
Start Brno 3+ goals
38%
Humpolec 1+ goals
70%
Humpolec 2+ goals
34%
Humpolec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Start Brno (draw refunded)
75%
Humpolec (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start Brno at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

Humpolec away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start Brno attack 2.42 + Humpolec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.22

Humpolec attack 1.10 + Start Brno defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Start Brno scores more
60%
level
20%
Humpolec scores more
20%

Start Brno at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Start Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Start Brno 5–4 Humpolec

Start Brno beat Humpolec 5-4 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště Loosova (Brno).