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Stará Říše vs Ždírec nad Doubravou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Stará Říše
Stará Říše
PST
15:00
Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
5/17/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 23Stadion FSC Stará Říše (Stará Říše)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Stará Říše45%
×Draw23%
Ždírec nad Doubravou33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stará Říše
1.79
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.50

Stará Říše creates 19% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 81 away

creates per match

Stará Říše
1.80
Ždírec nad Doubravou
0.95

allows per match

Stará Říše
2.06
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.77

finishing

Stará Říše+0.00on par
Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Říše ↓

Ždírec nad Doubravou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Stará Říše or draw
67%
Stará Říše or Ždírec nad Doubravou
77%
Draw or Ždírec nad Doubravou
55%

Winning margin

Stará Říše wins by 2+
24%
Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stará Říše 1+ goals
83%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
53%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
26%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
78%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
44%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stará Říše (draw refunded)
58%
Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Říše at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.06 · 49 matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Říše attack 1.80 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 0.95 + Stará Říše defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stará Říše scores more
45%
level
23%
Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
33%

Stará Říše at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stará Říše will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stará Říše face Ždírec nad Doubravou (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D returns with Stará Říše hosting Ždírec nad Doubravou. Match starts May 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stará Říše host Ždírec nad Doubravou at Stadion FSC Stará Říše (Stará Říše).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.