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Stará Říše vs Velká Bíteš — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Stará Říše
Stará Říše
PST
14:00
Velká Bíteš
Velká Bíteš
4/19/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 19Stadion FSC Stará Říše (Stará Říše)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Stará Říše37%
×Draw22%
Velká Bíteš41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stará Říše
1.76
Velká Bíteš
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 82 away

creates per match

Stará Říše
1.80
Velká Bíteš
1.70

allows per match

Stará Říše
2.06
Velká Bíteš
1.72

finishing

Stará Říše+0.00on par
Velká Bíteš+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Říše ↓

Velká Bíteš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Stará Říše or draw
59%
Stará Říše or Velká Bíteš
78%
Draw or Velká Bíteš
63%

Winning margin

Stará Říše wins by 2+
19%
Velká Bíteš wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Stará Říše 1+ goals
83%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
52%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
26%
Velká Bíteš 1+ goals
85%
Velká Bíteš 2+ goals
56%
Velká Bíteš 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Stará Říše (draw refunded)
47%
Velká Bíteš (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Říše at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.06 · 49 matches

Velká Bíteš away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.72 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Říše attack 1.80 + Velká Bíteš defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.76

Velká Bíteš attack 1.70 + Stará Říše defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stará Říše scores more
37%
level
22%
Velká Bíteš scores more
41%

Velká Bíteš at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Velká Bíteš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stará Říše host Velká Bíteš

April 19, 2020: Stará Říše take on Velká Bíteš in 4. liga - Divizie D. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stará Říše host Velká Bíteš at Stadion FSC Stará Říše (Stará Říše).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.