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Stará Říše vs Start Brno — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Stará Říše
Stará Říše
FT
5 – 3
Start Brno
Start Brno
9/15/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 7Stadion FSC Stará Říše (Stará Říše)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Stará Říše28%
×Draw21%
Start Brno51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stará Říše
1.55
Start Brno
2.13

Start Brno creates 37% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 37 away

creates per match

Stará Říše
1.80
Start Brno
2.19

allows per match

Stará Říše
2.06
Start Brno
1.30

finishing

Stará Říše+0.00on par
Start Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Říše ↓

Start Brno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Stará Říše or draw
49%
Stará Říše or Start Brno
79%
Draw or Start Brno
72%

Winning margin

Stará Říše wins by 2+
13%
Start Brno wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Stará Říše 1+ goals
79%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
46%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
20%
Start Brno 1+ goals
88%
Start Brno 2+ goals
63%
Start Brno 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Stará Říše (draw refunded)
36%
Start Brno (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Říše at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.06 · 49 matches

Start Brno away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Říše attack 1.80 + Start Brno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.55

Start Brno attack 2.19 + Stará Říše defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stará Říše scores more
28%
level
21%
Start Brno scores more
51%

Start Brno at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Start Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Stará Říše 5–3 Start Brno

Stará Říše beat Start Brno 5-3 in 4. liga - Divizie D on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FSC Stará Říše (Stará Říše).