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Stará Říše vs Sokol Tasovice — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Stará Říše
Stará Říše
FT
7 – 1
Sokol Tasovice
Sokol Tasovice
8/17/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 3Stadion FSC Stará Říše (Stará Říše)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Stará Říše40%
×Draw22%
Sokol Tasovice38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stará Říše
1.84
Sokol Tasovice
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 82 away

creates per match

Stará Říše
1.80
Sokol Tasovice
1.57

allows per match

Stará Říše
2.06
Sokol Tasovice
1.89

finishing

Stará Říše+0.00on par
Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Říše ↓

Sokol Tasovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Stará Říše or draw
62%
Stará Říše or Sokol Tasovice
78%
Draw or Sokol Tasovice
60%

Winning margin

Stará Říše wins by 2+
21%
Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stará Říše 1+ goals
84%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
55%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
28%
Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals
84%
Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals
54%
Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Stará Říše (draw refunded)
51%
Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Říše at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.06 · 49 matches

Sokol Tasovice away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.89 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Říše attack 1.80 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sokol Tasovice attack 1.57 + Stará Říše defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stará Říše scores more
40%
level
22%
Sokol Tasovice scores more
38%

Stará Říše at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stará Říše will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Stará Říše 7–1 Sokol Tasovice

Stará Říše beat Sokol Tasovice 7-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FSC Stará Říše (Stará Říše).