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Standard Liege vs St. Truiden — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Standard Liege
Standard Liege
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
St. Truiden
St. Truiden
12/27/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 20Stade Maurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Standard Liege32%
×Draw25%
St. Truiden43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Standard Liege
1.29
St. Truiden
1.54

St. Truiden creates 19% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

creates per match

Standard Liege
1.20
St. Truiden
1.46

allows per match

Standard Liege
1.62
St. Truiden
1.39

finishing

Standard Liege-0.30scores less
St. Truiden+0.02on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

St. Truiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw
57%
Standard Liege or St. Truiden
75%
Draw or St. Truiden
68%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+
14%
St. Truiden wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals
72%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
37%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
14%
St. Truiden 1+ goals
79%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
45%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)
43%
St. Truiden (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.39 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.20 + St. Truiden defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

St. Truiden attack 1.46 + Standard Liege defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Standard Liege scores more
32%
level
25%
St. Truiden scores more
43%

St. Truiden at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Standard Liege 1–1 St. Truiden

Standard Liege and St. Truiden drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on December 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Luik.