Standard Liege 1–0 Genk: Result & Stats

Standard Liege

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Genk

11/25/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 15Stade Maurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Standard Liege34%

×Draw25%

Genk41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Standard LiegeExpected goals in this matchGenk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.52

Standard Liege

1.37

Genk

1.52

Genk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

1.20

creates per match

1.42

1.62

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Standard Liege

1.20

Genk

1.42

allows per match

Standard Liege

1.62

Genk

1.54

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Standard Liege-0.30scores less

Genk+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

Genk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw

59%

Standard Liege or Genk

75%

Draw or Genk

66%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+

15%

Genk wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals

75%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

40%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

16%

Genk 1+ goals

78%

Genk 2+ goals

45%

Genk 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

46%

Genk (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Genk away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.54 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.20 + Genk defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.37

Genk attack 1.42 + Standard Liege defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Standard Liege scores more

34%

level

25%

Genk scores more

41%

Genk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff