Standard Liege 3–2 Anderlecht: Result & Stats

Standard Liege

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Anderlecht

N. Ngoy 61'

H. Kawabe 55'

S. Alzate 52'

A. Dreyer 24'

K. Dolberg 18'

10/22/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 11Stade Maurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Standard Liege39%

×Draw25%

Anderlecht37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Standard LiegeExpected goals in this matchAnderlecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.46

Standard Liege

1.50

Anderlecht

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 31 away

1.20

creates per match

1.30

1.62

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Standard Liege

1.20

Anderlecht

1.30

allows per match

Standard Liege

1.62

Anderlecht

1.79

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Standard Liege-0.30scores less

Anderlecht-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

Anderlecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw

63%

Standard Liege or Anderlecht

75%

Draw or Anderlecht

61%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+

19%

Anderlecht wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals

78%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

44%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

19%

Anderlecht 1+ goals

77%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

43%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

51%

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.79 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.20 + Anderlecht defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Anderlecht attack 1.30 + Standard Liege defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Standard Liege scores more

39%

level

25%

Anderlecht scores more

37%

Standard Liege at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Alzate

Standard Liege · M

8.0

Match Events

18'

K. Dolberg↳ T. Hazard

24'

A. Dreyer↳ M. Rits

27'

Anders DreyerGoal cancelled

50'

52'

55'

60'

61'

65'

66'

K. Arnstad← M. Stroeykens

66'

L. Vázquez← T. Hazard

76'

A. Flips← M. Rits

80'

G. Dewaele← M. Fossey

80'

M. N'Diaye← L. Augustinsson

84'

85'

90+6'

90+2'

90+1'

90+6'

A. O'Neill← S. Alzate

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StandardAnderlecht

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots13

1.06Expected Goals (xG)1.47

3Corners8

12Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots13

8On Target7

3Off Target3

4Blocked3

11Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

389Total Passes463

295Accurate Passes375

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2