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Standard Liege vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Standard Liege
Standard Liege
FT
5 – 0
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
Paul-José Mpoku 30' (pen)
Răzvan Marin 22'
4/12/2019Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Championship Round - 4Maurice Dufrasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Standard Liege39%
×Draw25%
Anderlecht37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Standard Liege
1.50
Anderlecht
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 30 away

creates per match

Standard Liege
1.20
Anderlecht
1.29

allows per match

Standard Liege
1.63
Anderlecht
1.81

finishing

Standard Liege-0.40scores less
Anderlecht-0.19scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Standard Liege ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Standard Liege or draw
63%
Standard Liege or Anderlecht
75%
Draw or Anderlecht
61%

Winning margin

Standard Liege wins by 2+
19%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Standard Liege 1+ goals
78%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
44%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
19%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
77%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
43%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Standard Liege (draw refunded)
51%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Standard Liege at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.63 · 20 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.81 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Standard Liege attack 1.20 + Anderlecht defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

Anderlecht attack 1.29 + Standard Liege defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Standard Liege scores more
39%
level
25%
Anderlecht scores more
37%

Standard Liege at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Kara Mbodji
22'
Răzvan Marin
29'
Kara Mbodji
29'
Kara Mbodji
30'
Paul-José MpokuPenalty

Statistics

StandardAnderlecht
Overview
2Corners0
Discipline
0Yellow Cards1
–Red Cards1

Match Recap: Standard Liege vs Anderlecht

Standard Liege beat Anderlecht 5-0 in Jupiler Pro League on April 12, 2019.

Goals: Răzvan Marin (22'), Paul-José Mpoku (30' pen).

The match was played at Maurice Dufrasne in Liege.