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Stadl-Paura vs Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Wels
Wels
9/1/2020Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 3Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Stadl-Paura46%
×Draw21%
Wels33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadl-Paura
2.17
Wels
1.82

Stadl-Paura creates 19% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 46 away

creates per match

Stadl-Paura
1.45
Wels
1.09

allows per match

Stadl-Paura
2.55
Wels
2.89

finishing

Stadl-Paura+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadl-Paura ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Stadl-Paura or draw
67%
Stadl-Paura or Wels
79%
Draw or Wels
54%

Winning margin

Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
27%
Wels wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
89%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
64%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
36%
Wels 1+ goals
84%
Wels 2+ goals
54%
Wels 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
58%
Wels (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadl-Paura at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.55 · 47 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadl-Paura attack 1.45 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.17

Wels attack 1.09 + Stadl-Paura defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stadl-Paura scores more
46%
level
21%
Wels scores more
33%

Stadl-Paura at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stadl-Paura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stadl-Paura vs Wels

Stadl-Paura and Wels drew 2-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 1, 2020.

The match was played at Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura in Stadl-Paura.