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Stadl-Paura vs Sturm Graz II — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
FT
0 – 3
Sturm Graz II
Sturm Graz II
3/9/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 16Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura (Stadl-Paura)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Stadl-Paura22%
×Draw20%
Sturm Graz II59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadl-Paura
1.37
Sturm Graz II
2.33

Sturm Graz II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 48 away

creates per match

Stadl-Paura
1.45
Sturm Graz II
2.10

allows per match

Stadl-Paura
2.55
Sturm Graz II
1.29

finishing

Stadl-Paura+0.00on par
Sturm Graz II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadl-Paura ↓

Sturm Graz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Stadl-Paura or draw
41%
Stadl-Paura or Sturm Graz II
80%
Draw or Sturm Graz II
78%

Winning margin

Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
9%
Sturm Graz II wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
75%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
40%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
16%
Sturm Graz II 1+ goals
90%
Sturm Graz II 2+ goals
67%
Sturm Graz II 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
27%
Sturm Graz II (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadl-Paura at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.55 · 47 matches

Sturm Graz II away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadl-Paura attack 1.45 + Sturm Graz II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sturm Graz II attack 2.10 + Stadl-Paura defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Stadl-Paura scores more
22%
level
20%
Sturm Graz II scores more
59%

Sturm Graz II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sturm Graz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stadl-Paura 0 – 3 Sturm Graz II

Sturm Graz II beat Stadl-Paura 3-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura (Stadl-Paura).