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Stadl-Paura vs Deutschlandsberger SC — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
FT
2 – 1
Deutschlandsberger SC
Deutschlandsberger SC
8/4/2018Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 2Molto Luce Arena Stadl-Paura (Stadl-Paura)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Stadl-Paura31%
×Draw21%
Deutschlandsberger SC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadl-Paura
1.61
Deutschlandsberger SC
2.05

Deutschlandsberger SC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 107 away

creates per match

Stadl-Paura
1.50
Deutschlandsberger SC
1.60

allows per match

Stadl-Paura
2.50
Deutschlandsberger SC
1.73

finishing

Stadl-Paura+0.00on par
Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadl-Paura ↓

Deutschlandsberger SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Stadl-Paura or draw
52%
Stadl-Paura or Deutschlandsberger SC
79%
Draw or Deutschlandsberger SC
69%

Winning margin

Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
15%
Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
80%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
48%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
22%
Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals
87%
Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals
61%
Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
39%
Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadl-Paura at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 48 matches

Deutschlandsberger SC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadl-Paura attack 1.50 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 1.60 + Stadl-Paura defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stadl-Paura scores more
31%
level
21%
Deutschlandsberger SC scores more
48%

Deutschlandsberger SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deutschlandsberger SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stadl-Paura vs Deutschlandsberger SC

Stadl-Paura beat Deutschlandsberger SC 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Molto Luce Arena Stadl-Paura (Stadl-Paura).