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Stadeln vs Kornburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Stadeln
Stadeln
Preview
16:00
Kornburg
Kornburg
8/28/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 8
41%
Stadeln
model favours
41%22%37%

Kornburg win just 22% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stadeln41%
×Draw22%
Kornburg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadeln
1.85
Kornburg
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

creates per match

Stadeln
1.94
Kornburg
1.44

allows per match

Stadeln
2.06
Kornburg
1.76

finishing

Stadeln+0.00on par
Kornburg+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadeln ↓

Kornburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Stadeln or draw
63%
Stadeln or Kornburg
78%
Draw or Kornburg
59%

Winning margin

Stadeln wins by 2+
22%
Kornburg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Stadeln 1+ goals
84%
Stadeln 2+ goals
55%
Stadeln 3+ goals
28%
Kornburg 1+ goals
83%
Kornburg 2+ goals
52%
Kornburg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Stadeln (draw refunded)
53%
Kornburg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadeln at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

Kornburg away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.76 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadeln attack 1.94 + Kornburg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.85

Kornburg attack 1.44 + Stadeln defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stadeln scores more
41%
level
22%
Kornburg scores more
37%

Stadeln at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stadeln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Stadeln
DDLW
Kornburg
LLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stadeln vs Kornburg — Match Preview

Stadeln face Kornburg on August 28, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.