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Stadeln vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Stadeln
Stadeln
Preview
12:00
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
10/3/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 13
44%
Gebenbach
model favours
35%21%44%

Gebenbach win just 36% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
73%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stadeln35%
×Draw21%
Gebenbach44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadeln
1.78
Gebenbach
2.02

Gebenbach creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

creates per match

Stadeln
1.94
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

Stadeln
2.06
Gebenbach
1.62

finishing

Stadeln+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadeln ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Stadeln or draw
56%
Stadeln or Gebenbach
79%
Draw or Gebenbach
65%

Winning margin

Stadeln wins by 2+
18%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Stadeln 1+ goals
83%
Stadeln 2+ goals
53%
Stadeln 3+ goals
26%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
87%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
60%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Stadeln (draw refunded)
44%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadeln at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadeln attack 1.94 + Gebenbach defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.78

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + Stadeln defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stadeln scores more
35%
level
21%
Gebenbach scores more
44%

Gebenbach at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Stadeln sit 15, Gebenbach 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stadeln
DDLW
Gebenbach
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stadeln vs Gebenbach — Match Preview

Stadeln face Gebenbach on October 3, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.