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Stadeln vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Stadeln
Stadeln
Preview
12:00
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
4/17/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 28
40%
Stadeln
model favours
40%22%38%
1–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stadeln40%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Regensburg38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadeln
1.90
Fortuna Regensburg
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 51 away

creates per match

Stadeln
1.94
Fortuna Regensburg
1.63

allows per match

Stadeln
2.06
Fortuna Regensburg
1.86

finishing

Stadeln+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadeln ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Stadeln or draw
62%
Stadeln or Fortuna Regensburg
78%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
60%

Winning margin

Stadeln wins by 2+
22%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stadeln 1+ goals
85%
Stadeln 2+ goals
56%
Stadeln 3+ goals
29%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
84%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
55%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Stadeln (draw refunded)
51%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadeln at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadeln attack 1.94 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.90

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + Stadeln defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stadeln scores more
40%
level
22%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
38%

Stadeln at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stadeln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Stadeln
DDLW
Regensburg
WDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stadeln host Fortuna Regensburg

April 17, 2027: Stadeln take on Fortuna Regensburg in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.