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Stadeln vs Cham — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Stadeln
Stadeln
Preview
16:30
Cham
Cham
8/7/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 4
40%
Cham
model favours
38%23%40%

Stadeln sit 15, Cham 2 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stadeln38%
×Draw23%
Cham40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadeln
1.71
Cham
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

creates per match

Stadeln
1.94
Cham
1.44

allows per match

Stadeln
2.06
Cham
1.49

finishing

Stadeln+0.00on par
Cham+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadeln ↓

Cham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Stadeln or draw
60%
Stadeln or Cham
77%
Draw or Cham
62%

Winning margin

Stadeln wins by 2+
19%
Cham wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stadeln 1+ goals
82%
Stadeln 2+ goals
51%
Stadeln 3+ goals
24%
Cham 1+ goals
83%
Cham 2+ goals
52%
Cham 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Stadeln (draw refunded)
49%
Cham (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadeln at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

Cham away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadeln attack 1.94 + Cham defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.71

Cham attack 1.44 + Stadeln defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stadeln scores more
38%
level
23%
Cham scores more
40%

Cham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Stadeln
DDLW
Cham
LLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stadeln vs Cham — Match Preview

Stadeln face Cham on August 7, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.