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Stadeln vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Stadeln
Stadeln
Preview
12:00
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
4/3/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 26
39%
Stadeln
model favours
39%22%39%
1–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stadeln39%
×Draw22%
Bayern Hof39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadeln
1.78
Bayern Hof
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

creates per match

Stadeln
1.94
Bayern Hof
1.51

allows per match

Stadeln
2.06
Bayern Hof
1.62

finishing

Stadeln+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadeln ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Stadeln or draw
61%
Stadeln or Bayern Hof
78%
Draw or Bayern Hof
61%

Winning margin

Stadeln wins by 2+
20%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stadeln 1+ goals
83%
Stadeln 2+ goals
53%
Stadeln 3+ goals
26%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
83%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
53%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Stadeln (draw refunded)
50%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadeln at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadeln attack 1.94 + Bayern Hof defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.78

Bayern Hof attack 1.51 + Stadeln defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stadeln scores more
39%
level
22%
Bayern Hof scores more
39%

Stadeln at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stadeln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Stadeln
DDLW
Hof
DDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stadeln host Bayern Hof

April 3, 2027: Stadeln take on Bayern Hof in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.