Stade Tunisien 1–1 Slimane: Result & Stats

Stade Tunisien

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slimane

B. Mejri 60'

A. Ben Mahmoud 90'

3/20/2021

League #202 · Round 20Stade Hédi-Enneifer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Stade Tunisien50%

×Draw31%

Slimane20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade TunisienExpected goals in this matchSlimane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.63

Stade Tunisien

1.19

Slimane

0.63

Stade Tunisien creates 89% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 32 away

1.16

creates per match

0.63

0.62

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Stade Tunisien

1.16

Slimane

0.63

allows per match

Stade Tunisien

0.62

Slimane

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Slimane+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Tunisien ↓

Slimane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Stade Tunisien or draw

80%

Stade Tunisien or Slimane

69%

Draw or Slimane

50%

Winning margin

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+

22%

Slimane wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals

70%

Stade Tunisien 2+ goals

33%

Stade Tunisien 3+ goals

12%

Slimane 1+ goals

47%

Slimane 2+ goals

13%

Slimane 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)

72%

Slimane (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Tunisien at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.62 · 61 matches

Slimane away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Tunisien attack 1.16 + Slimane defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Slimane attack 0.63 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stade Tunisien scores more

50%

level

31%

Slimane scores more

20%

Stade Tunisien at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

M. Hannachi← B. Ait Malek

58'

B. Triki← A. El Barbati

60'

B. Mejri

63'

A. Chtioui← S. Hammami

75'

H. Hammami← Ahmed Al Maghasi

75'

Y. Mosrati← H. Khalfa

75'

G. Hzemi← P. Onyekachi

85'

P. Arthur← H. Habbassi

90'

A. Ben Mahmoud

Stade

Slimane

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: G. Ghrairi

56'▲M. Hannachi←▼B. Ait Malek

75'▲H. Hammami←▼Ahmed Al Maghasi

85'▲P. Arthur←▼H. Habbassi

Stade Tunisien substitutes

HannachiHammamiArthur

Manager: Y. Zelfani

58'▲B. Triki←▼A. El Barbati

63'▲A. Chtioui←▼S. Hammami

75'▲Y. Mosrati←▼H. Khalfa

75'▲G. Hzemi←▼P. Onyekachi

Slimane substitutes

TrikiChtiouiMosratiHzemi