Stade Tunisien 1–0 Slimane: Result & Stats | Cup

Stade Tunisien

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Slimane

A. Sikiru 45'

3/1/2020

Cup · 16th FinalsStade Hedi Ennaifer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stade Tunisien62%

×Draw27%

Slimane10%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade TunisienExpected goals in this matchSlimane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.38

Stade Tunisien

1.38

Slimane

0.38

Stade Tunisien creates 263% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

0.50

0.25

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Stade Tunisien

1.50

Slimane

0.50

allows per match

Stade Tunisien

0.25

Slimane

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Slimane+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No76
Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Tunisien ↓

Slimane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–17%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Stade Tunisien or draw

90%

Stade Tunisien or Slimane

73%

Draw or Slimane

38%

Winning margin

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+

32%

Slimane wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals

75%

Stade Tunisien 2+ goals

40%

Stade Tunisien 3+ goals

16%

Slimane 1+ goals

32%

Slimane 2+ goals

6%

Slimane 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)

86%

Slimane (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Tunisien at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Slimane away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Tunisien attack 1.50 + Slimane defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Slimane attack 0.50 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Stade Tunisien scores more

62%

level

27%

Slimane scores more

10%

Stade Tunisien at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

A. Sikiru

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff