Stade Renard 0–1 PWD Bamenda: Result & Stats

Stade Renard

FT

0 – 1

PWD Bamenda

11/2/2022

Elite One · Round 3Stade Annexe 2 de Japoma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Stade Renard45%

×Draw29%

PWD Bamenda26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade RenardExpected goals in this matchPWD Bamenda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.87

Stade Renard

1.23

PWD Bamenda

0.87

Stade Renard creates 41% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 99 away

1.28

creates per match

1.01

0.73

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Stade Renard

1.28

PWD Bamenda

1.01

allows per match

Stade Renard

0.73

PWD Bamenda

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

PWD Bamenda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw

74%

Stade Renard or PWD Bamenda

71%

Draw or PWD Bamenda

55%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+

20%

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals

71%

Stade Renard 2+ goals

35%

Stade Renard 3+ goals

13%

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals

58%

PWD Bamenda 2+ goals

22%

PWD Bamenda 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)

63%

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

PWD Bamenda away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + PWD Bamenda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

PWD Bamenda attack 1.01 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stade Renard scores more

45%

level

29%

PWD Bamenda scores more

26%

Stade Renard at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff