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Stade Renard vs Cotonsport — Elite One 2019

Stade Renard
Stade Renard
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cotonsport
Cotonsport
P. G. Wassou 29'
4/30/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 22Stade Municipal de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Stade Renard39%
×Draw31%
Cotonsport31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Renard
1.08
Cotonsport
0.93

Stade Renard creates 16% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 100 away

creates per match

Stade Renard
1.28
Cotonsport
1.12

allows per match

Stade Renard
0.73
Cotonsport
0.88

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par
Cotonsport+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

Cotonsport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw
69%
Stade Renard or Cotonsport
69%
Draw or Cotonsport
61%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+
16%
Cotonsport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals
66%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
29%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
10%
Cotonsport 1+ goals
61%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
24%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)
56%
Cotonsport (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

Cotonsport away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + Cotonsport defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cotonsport attack 1.12 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stade Renard scores more
39%
level
31%
Cotonsport scores more
31%

Stade Renard at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
P. G. Wassou

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Renard vs Cotonsport

Cotonsport beat Stade Renard 1-0 in Elite One on April 30, 2023.

Goals: P. G. Wassou (29').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.