Stade Nyonnais 1–2 FC Aarau: Result & Stats

Stade Nyonnais

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Aarau

R. Busset 68'

N. Gjorgjev 49'

Y. Toure 14'

9/27/2024

Challenge League · Round 9Centre sportif de Colovray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stade Nyonnais43%

×Draw23%

FC Aarau35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade NyonnaisExpected goals in this matchFC Aarau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.61

Stade Nyonnais

1.81

FC Aarau

1.61

Stade Nyonnais creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 62 away

1.56

creates per match

1.56

1.67

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Stade Nyonnais

1.56

FC Aarau

1.56

allows per match

Stade Nyonnais

1.67

FC Aarau

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Nyonnais+0.00on par

FC Aarau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Nyonnais ↓

FC Aarau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Stade Nyonnais or draw

65%

Stade Nyonnais or FC Aarau

77%

Draw or FC Aarau

57%

Winning margin

Stade Nyonnais wins by 2+

23%

FC Aarau wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Stade Nyonnais 1+ goals

84%

Stade Nyonnais 2+ goals

54%

Stade Nyonnais 3+ goals

27%

FC Aarau 1+ goals

80%

FC Aarau 2+ goals

48%

FC Aarau 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Stade Nyonnais (draw refunded)

55%

FC Aarau (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Nyonnais at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

FC Aarau away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Nyonnais attack 1.56 + FC Aarau defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.81

FC Aarau attack 1.56 + Stade Nyonnais defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stade Nyonnais scores more

43%

level

23%

FC Aarau scores more

35%

Stade Nyonnais at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stade Nyonnais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Y. Toure↳ N. Gjorgjev

22'

R. Busset← I. Strohbach

33'

N. Jakob← O. Jäckle

34'

D. Yana

41'

L. Obexer

46'

M. Deme← D. Yana

48'

R. Correia

49'

N. Gjorgjev↳ V. Fazliu

59'

L. Gazzetta

64'

F. Koré← R. Correia

68'

M. Avdyli← N. Gjorgjev

68'

R. Busset↳ T. Escorza

69'

E. Gebreyesus← H. Koide

71'

T. Escorza

76'

M. Dickenmann

77'

L. Bega← B. Diomande

77'

M. Jaiteh← T. Escorza

88'

88'

89'

90+3'

Stade

FC

1

27

15

5

29

8

▼

Jäckle

23

⚽A

▼

Gjorgjev

6

▼

Aliu

10

A

Fazliu

17

▼

Koide

9

⚽

▼

Toure

91

Mastil

22

Gazzetta

4

▼

Strohbach

3

▼

Correia

28

Sylvestre

77

A

▼

Escorza

29

▼

5

6

11

44

▼

Yana

Manager: C. Caschili

22'▲R. Busset←▼I. Strohbach

46'▲M. Deme←▼D. Yana

64'▲F. Koré←▼R. Correia

77'▲L. Bega←▼B. Diomande

77'▲M. Jaiteh←▼T. Escorza

Stade Nyonnais substitutes

26Busset19Deme9Koré8Bega45Jaiteh42Olaniyi1Spycher90Lienafa17Gomes

Manager: B. Iacopetta

33'▲N. Jakob←▼O. Jäckle

68'▲M. Avdyli←▼N. Gjorgjev

69'▲E. Gebreyesus←▼H. Koide

88'▲E. Ernest←▼Y. Toure

88'▲M. Thaler←▼I. Aliu

FC Aarau substitutes

21Jakob11Avdyli49Gebreyesus24Ernest2Thaler31Odutayo38Kessler47Fofana30Hirzel

Challenge League: Stade Nyonnais 1–2 FC Aarau

FC Aarau beat Stade Nyonnais 2-1 in Challenge League on September 27, 2024.

Goals: Y. Toure (14'), N. Gjorgjev (49'), R. Busset (68').

The match was played at Centre sportif de Colovray in Nyon.

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau — Challenge League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Challenge League: Stade Nyonnais 1–2 FC Aarau