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Stade Malien Bamako vs USFAS Bamako — Première Division 2019

Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
FT
1 – 2
USFAS Bamako
USFAS Bamako
6/5/2022Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 28Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Stade Malien Bamako46%
×Draw31%
USFAS Bamako23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Malien Bamako
1.16
USFAS Bamako
0.74

Stade Malien Bamako creates 57% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 96 away

creates per match

Stade Malien Bamako
1.27
USFAS Bamako
0.99

allows per match

Stade Malien Bamako
0.50
USFAS Bamako
1.04

finishing

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par
USFAS Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Malien Bamako ↓

USFAS Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Stade Malien Bamako or draw
77%
Stade Malien Bamako or USFAS Bamako
69%
Draw or USFAS Bamako
54%

Winning margin

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
20%
USFAS Bamako wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
69%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
32%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
11%
USFAS Bamako 1+ goals
52%
USFAS Bamako 2+ goals
17%
USFAS Bamako 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
66%
USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Malien Bamako at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 101 matches

USFAS Bamako away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.04 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.27 + USFAS Bamako defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

USFAS Bamako attack 0.99 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stade Malien Bamako scores more
46%
level
31%
USFAS Bamako scores more
23%

Stade Malien Bamako at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Malien Bamako vs USFAS Bamako

USFAS Bamako beat Stade Malien Bamako 2-1 in Première Division on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.