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Stade Malien Bamako vs USC Kita — Première Division 2019

Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
FT
0 – 0
USC Kita
USC Kita
3/28/2021Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 8Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Stade Malien Bamako48%
×Draw31%
USC Kita20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Malien Bamako
1.16
USC Kita
0.64

Stade Malien Bamako creates 81% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 66 away

creates per match

Stade Malien Bamako
1.26
USC Kita
0.76

allows per match

Stade Malien Bamako
0.51
USC Kita
1.05

finishing

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par
USC Kita+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Malien Bamako ↓

USC Kita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Stade Malien Bamako or draw
80%
Stade Malien Bamako or USC Kita
69%
Draw or USC Kita
52%

Winning margin

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
21%
USC Kita wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
69%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
32%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
11%
USC Kita 1+ goals
47%
USC Kita 2+ goals
14%
USC Kita 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
70%
USC Kita (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Malien Bamako at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.51 · 99 matches

USC Kita away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.26 + USC Kita defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

USC Kita attack 0.76 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stade Malien Bamako scores more
48%
level
31%
USC Kita scores more
20%

Stade Malien Bamako at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Stade Malien Bamako 0–0 USC Kita

Stade Malien Bamako and USC Kita drew 0-0 in Première Division on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.