Stade Gabesien 1–1 JS Kairouanaise: Result & Stats

Stade Gabesien

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

JS Kairouanaise

Z. Souissi 71'

S. Mhadhebi 70'

2/9/2014

League #202 · Round 18Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stade Gabesien51%

×Draw29%

JS Kairouanaise20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade GabesienExpected goals in this matchJS Kairouanaise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.68

Stade Gabesien

1.30

JS Kairouanaise

0.68

Stade Gabesien creates 91% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 64 away

0.94

creates per match

0.58

0.78

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Stade Gabesien

0.94

JS Kairouanaise

0.58

allows per match

Stade Gabesien

0.78

JS Kairouanaise

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

JS Kairouanaise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw

80%

Stade Gabesien or JS Kairouanaise

71%

Draw or JS Kairouanaise

49%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

24%

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

73%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

37%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

14%

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals

49%

JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals

15%

JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

73%

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 0.94 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.58 + Stade Gabesien defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more

51%

level

29%

JS Kairouanaise scores more

20%

Stade Gabesien at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'

S. Mhadhebi

71'

Z. Souissi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff