Stade Gabesien 0–1 Etoile DU Sahel: Result & Stats

Stade Gabesien

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Etoile DU Sahel

9/7/2014

League #202 · Round 2Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Stade Gabesien30%

×Draw29%

Etoile DU Sahel41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade GabesienExpected goals in this matchEtoile DU Sahel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.19

Stade Gabesien

0.97

Etoile DU Sahel

1.19

Etoile DU Sahel creates 23% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 48 away

0.88

creates per match

1.33

1.04

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Stade Gabesien

0.88

Etoile DU Sahel

1.33

allows per match

Stade Gabesien

1.04

Etoile DU Sahel

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

Etoile DU Sahel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw

59%

Stade Gabesien or Etoile DU Sahel

71%

Draw or Etoile DU Sahel

70%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

11%

Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

62%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

25%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

7%

Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals

70%

Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals

33%

Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

42%

Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Etoile DU Sahel away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.06 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 0.88 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.33 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more

30%

level

29%

Etoile DU Sahel scores more

41%

Etoile DU Sahel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Etoile DU Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff