Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stade Gabesien vs ES Zarzis — League #202 2026

Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
A. Hosni 43'
5/12/2015League #202League #202 · Round 29Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stade Gabesien42%
×Draw31%
ES Zarzis26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Gabesien
1.11
ES Zarzis
0.81

Stade Gabesien creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 58 away

creates per match

Stade Gabesien
0.94
ES Zarzis
0.84

allows per match

Stade Gabesien
0.78
ES Zarzis
1.29

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par
ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

ES Zarzis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw
74%
Stade Gabesien or ES Zarzis
69%
Draw or ES Zarzis
58%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
18%
ES Zarzis wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
67%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
30%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
10%
ES Zarzis 1+ goals
56%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
19%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
62%
ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

ES Zarzis away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 0.94 + ES Zarzis defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

ES Zarzis attack 0.84 + Stade Gabesien defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more
42%
level
31%
ES Zarzis scores more
26%

Stade Gabesien at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
A. Hosni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #202: Stade Gabesien 1–0 ES Zarzis

Stade Gabesien beat ES Zarzis 1-0 in League #202 on May 12, 2015.

Goals: A. Hosni (43').

The match was played at Stade de Zrig in Gabès.