Stade Gabesien 2–0 CS Hammam-Lif: Result & Stats

Stade Gabesien

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

CS Hammam-Lif

H. Essifi 29', 21' (pen)

11/1/2015

League #202 · Round 6Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stade Gabesien50%

×Draw30%

CS Hammam-Lif20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade GabesienExpected goals in this matchCS Hammam-Lif

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.65

Stade Gabesien

1.23

CS Hammam-Lif

0.65

Stade Gabesien creates 89% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 27 away

0.94

creates per match

0.52

0.78

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Stade Gabesien

0.94

CS Hammam-Lif

0.52

allows per match

Stade Gabesien

0.78

CS Hammam-Lif

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

CS Hammam-Lif →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw

80%

Stade Gabesien or CS Hammam-Lif

70%

Draw or CS Hammam-Lif

50%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

23%

CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

71%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

35%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

13%

CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals

48%

CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals

14%

CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

72%

CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

CS Hammam-Lif away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 0.94 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

CS Hammam-Lif attack 0.52 + Stade Gabesien defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more

50%

level

30%

CS Hammam-Lif scores more

20%

Stade Gabesien at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

H. EssifiPenalty

29'

H. Essifi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff