Stade de Reims W 1–0 Paris Saint Germain W

Stade de Reims W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Paris Saint Germain W

M. Dumornay 45+2'

6/1/2022

Feminine Division 1 · Round 22Stade Louis Blériot N°2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Stade de Reims W18%

×Draw20%

Paris Saint Germain W62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade de Reims WExpected goals in this matchParis Saint Germain W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

2.21

Stade de Reims W

1.11

Paris Saint Germain W

2.21

Paris Saint Germain W creates 99% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 86 away

1.42

creates per match

2.62

1.79

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Stade de Reims W

1.42

Paris Saint Germain W

2.62

allows per match

Stade de Reims W

1.79

Paris Saint Germain W

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade de Reims W+0.00on par

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Reims W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Stade de Reims W or draw

38%

Stade de Reims W or Paris Saint Germain W

80%

Draw or Paris Saint Germain W

82%

Winning margin

Stade de Reims W wins by 2+

7%

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Stade de Reims W 1+ goals

67%

Stade de Reims W 2+ goals

30%

Stade de Reims W 3+ goals

10%

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals

89%

Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals

65%

Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Stade de Reims W (draw refunded)

23%

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Reims W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 62 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 2.62, concedes 0.81 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Reims W attack 1.42 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.11

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.62 + Stade de Reims W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Stade de Reims W scores more

18%

level

20%

Paris Saint Germain W scores more

62%

Paris Saint Germain W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

S. Baltimore

45+2'

M. Dumornay↳ E. Mayi Kith

60'

B. Benera← M. Folquet

67'

Nelly Rodrigues← J. Le Guilly

70'

P. Dudek

75'

M. Traoré← O. Hurtré

77'

T. Romanenko← K. Louis

79'

82'

88'

90'

Stade

Paris

16

Picaud

4

▼

Dudek

19

Cascarino

5

Almeida

28

▼

20

21

18

25

▼

Folquet

23

Huitema

22

▼

Hurtré

1

Alvarado

5

Pasquerea

4

A

Kith

18

Deslandes

22

Doucouré

13

▼

Louis

8

▼

Ouchène

26

Philippe

6

⚽

Dumornay

10

Corboz

19

▼

Bussy

Manager: A. Miquel

77'▲T. Romanenko←▼K. Louis

82'▲L. Joly←▼S. Ouchène

90'▲M. Porter←▼K. Bussy

Stade de Reims W substitutes

3Romanenko15Joly7Porter16Francart28Lejeune11Becho20Feller

Manager: D. Ollé-Nicolle

60'▲B. Benera←▼M. Folquet

67'▲Nelly Rodrigues←▼J. Le Guilly

75'▲M. Traoré←▼O. Hurtré

79'▲S. Ngueleu←▼P. Dudek

Paris Saint Germain W substitutes

35Benera34Rodrigues36Traoré33Ngueleu37Glyda40Voll