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Stade de Reims W vs Paris Saint Germain W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Stade de Reims W
Stade de Reims W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
11/23/2019Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 10Stade Auguste-Delaune II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Stade de Reims W18%
×Draw20%
Paris Saint Germain W62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade de Reims W
1.11
Paris Saint Germain W
2.21

Paris Saint Germain W creates 99% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 86 away

creates per match

Stade de Reims W
1.42
Paris Saint Germain W
2.62

allows per match

Stade de Reims W
1.79
Paris Saint Germain W
0.81

finishing

Stade de Reims W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Reims W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Stade de Reims W or draw
38%
Stade de Reims W or Paris Saint Germain W
80%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
82%

Winning margin

Stade de Reims W wins by 2+
7%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Stade de Reims W 1+ goals
67%
Stade de Reims W 2+ goals
30%
Stade de Reims W 3+ goals
10%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
89%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
65%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Stade de Reims W (draw refunded)
23%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Reims W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 62 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 2.62, concedes 0.81 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Reims W attack 1.42 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.11

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.62 + Stade de Reims W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Stade de Reims W scores more
18%
level
20%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
62%

Paris Saint Germain W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feminine Division 1: Stade de Reims W 1–3 Paris Saint Germain W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Stade de Reims W 3-1 in Feminine Division 1 on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Reims.