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Stade de Reims W vs Dijon W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Stade de Reims W
Stade de Reims W
CANC
14:00
Dijon W
Dijon W
5/30/2020Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 22Stade Louis Blériot N°2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Stade de Reims W45%
×Draw24%
Dijon W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade de Reims W
1.67
Dijon W
1.36

Stade de Reims W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 87 away

creates per match

Stade de Reims W
1.42
Dijon W
0.93

allows per match

Stade de Reims W
1.79
Dijon W
1.92

finishing

Stade de Reims W+0.00on par
Dijon W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Reims W ↓

Dijon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Stade de Reims W or draw
69%
Stade de Reims W or Dijon W
76%
Draw or Dijon W
55%

Winning margin

Stade de Reims W wins by 2+
23%
Dijon W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stade de Reims W 1+ goals
81%
Stade de Reims W 2+ goals
50%
Stade de Reims W 3+ goals
23%
Dijon W 1+ goals
74%
Dijon W 2+ goals
39%
Dijon W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stade de Reims W (draw refunded)
59%
Dijon W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Reims W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 62 matches

Dijon W away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.92 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Reims W attack 1.42 + Dijon W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dijon W attack 0.93 + Stade de Reims W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stade de Reims W scores more
45%
level
24%
Dijon W scores more
31%

Stade de Reims W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stade de Reims W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stade de Reims W host Dijon W

May 30, 2020: Stade de Reims W take on Dijon W in Feminine Division 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stade de Reims W host Dijon W at Stade Louis Blériot N°2.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.