Stade de Mbour 1–2 Diambars: Result & Stats

Stade de Mbour

FT

1 – 2

Diambars

2/28/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 9Complexe Sportif Bruno Metsu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Stade de Mbour34%

×Draw32%

Diambars33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade de MbourExpected goals in this matchDiambars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.92

Stade de Mbour

0.94

Diambars

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

0.62

creates per match

1.07

0.77

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Stade de Mbour

0.62

Diambars

1.07

allows per match

Stade de Mbour

0.77

Diambars

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade de Mbour+0.00on par

Diambars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Mbour ↓

Diambars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Stade de Mbour or draw

67%

Stade de Mbour or Diambars

68%

Draw or Diambars

66%

Winning margin

Stade de Mbour wins by 2+

12%

Diambars wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stade de Mbour 1+ goals

61%

Stade de Mbour 2+ goals

24%

Stade de Mbour 3+ goals

7%

Diambars 1+ goals

60%

Diambars 2+ goals

23%

Diambars 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Stade de Mbour (draw refunded)

51%

Diambars (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Mbour at home — creates 0.62, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

Diambars away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Mbour attack 0.62 + Diambars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.94

Diambars attack 1.07 + Stade de Mbour defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Stade de Mbour scores more

34%

level

32%

Diambars scores more

33%

Stade de Mbour at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Stade de Mbour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff