Stade Beaucairois 3–1 Olympique d'Alès

Stade Beaucairois

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Olympique d'Alès

H. Sbaï 68'

L. Tazi 43'

B. Soumah 27'

M. Sbai 30' (pen)

9/5/2020

League #467 · Occitanie - 2Stade Philibert Schneider

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stade Beaucairois28%

×Draw22%

Olympique d'Alès51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade BeaucairoisExpected goals in this matchOlympique d'Alès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.00

Stade Beaucairois

1.43

Olympique d'Alès

2.00

Olympique d'Alès creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.57

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Stade Beaucairois

1.57

Olympique d'Alès

2.00

allows per match

Stade Beaucairois

2.00

Olympique d'Alès

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Beaucairois+0.00on par

Olympique d'Alès+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Beaucairois ↓

Olympique d'Alès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Stade Beaucairois or draw

49%

Stade Beaucairois or Olympique d'Alès

78%

Draw or Olympique d'Alès

72%

Winning margin

Stade Beaucairois wins by 2+

12%

Olympique d'Alès wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Stade Beaucairois 1+ goals

76%

Stade Beaucairois 2+ goals

42%

Stade Beaucairois 3+ goals

17%

Olympique d'Alès 1+ goals

86%

Olympique d'Alès 2+ goals

59%

Olympique d'Alès 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Stade Beaucairois (draw refunded)

35%

Olympique d'Alès (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Beaucairois at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Olympique d'Alès away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Beaucairois attack 1.57 + Olympique d'Alès defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Olympique d'Alès attack 2.00 + Stade Beaucairois defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stade Beaucairois scores more

28%

level

22%

Olympique d'Alès scores more

51%

Olympique d'Alès at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Olympique d'Alès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

B. Soumah

30'

M. SbaiPenalty

43'

L. Tazi

59'

I. Mboup← J. Ramos Silva

68'

76'

80'

85'

88'

M. Ismaili← L. Franco

90+1'

M. Akrour← B. Soumah

Stade

Olympique

1

Moreau

5

▼

Revoy

3

Djabou

4

Faye

10

▼

2

9

8

6

7

▼

Silva

11

⚽

1

4

2

6

3

7

▼

Fabre

5

Kabore

10

⚽

Sbaï

11

⚽

▼

Tazi

8

Sylla

9

⚽

▼

Soumah

Manager: S. Carletta

80'▲N. Abarkan←▼L. Tazi

85'▲D. Himmes←▼C. Fabre

90+1'▲M. Akrour←▼B. Soumah

Stade Beaucairois substitutes

12Abarkan14Himmes13Akrour16Weber15Top

Manager: S. Saurat

59'▲I. Mboup←▼J. Ramos Silva

76'▲T. Peyrard←▼V. Revoy

88'▲M. Ismaili←▼L. Franco

Olympique d'Alès substitutes

14Mboup13Peyrard15Ismaili12Fontanelli16Bouchite

League #467: Stade Beaucairois 3–1 Olympique d'Alès

Stade Beaucairois beat Olympique d'Alès 3-1 in League #467 on September 5, 2020.

Goals: B. Soumah (27'), M. Sbai (30' pen), L. Tazi (43'), H. Sbaï (68').

The match was played at Stade Philibert Schneider in Beaucaire.

Stade Beaucairois vs Olympique d'Alès — League #467 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #467: Stade Beaucairois 3–1 Olympique d'Alès