Stabaek 2–0 Start: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Stabaek

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Start

K. Kinoshita 81'

L. Kassi 69'

9/27/2020

Eliteserien · Round 19Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Stabaek45%

×Draw26%

Start30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.17

Stabaek

1.49

Start

1.17

Stabaek creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.16

creates per match

0.90

1.43

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Stabaek

1.16

Start

0.90

allows per match

Stabaek

1.43

Start

1.82

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Stabaek+0.04on par

Start+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

70%

Stabaek or Start

74%

Draw or Start

55%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

22%

Start wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

77%

Stabaek 2+ goals

44%

Stabaek 3+ goals

19%

Start 1+ goals

69%

Start 2+ goals

33%

Start 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

60%

Start (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

Start away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.82 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.16 + Start defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.49

Start attack 0.90 + Stabaek defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stabaek scores more

45%

level

26%

Start scores more

30%

Stabaek at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Kassi

Stabaek · M

8.0

Match Events

22'

Andreas Hanche-Olsen

31'

Eirik Wichne

50'

Darren Melvin Philip Maatsen

58'

A. Wichne← J. Deumeland

66'

L. Kassi← T. Lumanza

69'

L. Kassi↳ E. Jonassen

73'

K. Kabran← E. Marković

73'

K. Skaanes← E. Wichne

77'

K. Kinoshita← D. Maatsen

81'

K. Kinoshita↳ L. Kassi

82'

E. Børufsen← J. Jørgensen

82'

M. Ramsland← S. Skålevik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekStart

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots15

3Corners6

15Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots15

4On Target2

4Off Target7

2Blocked6

8Inside Box9

2Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

341Total Passes393

242Accurate Passes278

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3

Stabaek 2 – 0 Start

Stabaek beat Start 2-0 in Eliteserien on September 27, 2020.

Goals: L. Kassi (69'), K. Kinoshita (81').

Start controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Nadderud Stadion in Bekkestua.

Stabaek vs Start — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Stabaek 2 – 0 Start