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Stabaek vs Sogndal — 1. Division 2026

Stabaek
Stabaek
Preview
15:00
Sogndal
Sogndal
9/20/20261. Division1. Division · Round 23Nadderud Stadion
Big match
48%
Stabaek
model favours
48%23%29%

Both teams score in 88% of Sogndal’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stabaek48%
×Draw23%
Sogndal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
1.77
Sogndal
1.33

Stabaek creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 114 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.96
Sogndal
1.33

allows per match

Stabaek
1.33
Sogndal
1.58

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par
Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Sogndal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
71%
Stabaek or Sogndal
77%
Draw or Sogndal
52%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
26%
Sogndal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
83%
Stabaek 2+ goals
53%
Stabaek 3+ goals
26%
Sogndal 1+ goals
74%
Sogndal 2+ goals
38%
Sogndal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
62%
Sogndal (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.96 + Sogndal defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sogndal attack 1.33 + Stabaek defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stabaek scores more
48%
level
23%
Sogndal scores more
29%

Stabaek at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Stabaek score first in only 25% of matches
  • Sogndal score first in only 29% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (65% and 71% over 2.5)
  • 71% of Sogndal’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 65% of Stabaek’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stabaek
WWLWD
Sogndal
LWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stabaek face Sogndal (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Stabaek hosting Sogndal. Match starts September 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stabaek host Sogndal at Nadderud Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.