Stabaek 2–0 Sandefjord: Result & Stats

Stabaek

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sandefjord

H. Vetlesen 82'

A. Hanche-Olsen 30'

6/24/2020

Eliteserien · Round 3Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stabaek37%

×Draw24%

Sandefjord38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchSandefjord

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.51

Stabaek

1.48

Sandefjord

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 38 away

1.09

creates per match

1.37

1.65

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Stabaek

1.09

Sandefjord

1.37

allows per match

Stabaek

1.65

Sandefjord

1.87

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Stabaek-0.09on par

Sandefjord+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Sandefjord →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

62%

Stabaek or Sandefjord

76%

Draw or Sandefjord

63%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

18%

Sandefjord wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

77%

Stabaek 2+ goals

43%

Stabaek 3+ goals

19%

Sandefjord 1+ goals

78%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

44%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

49%

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.65 · 6 matches

Sandefjord away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.09 + Sandefjord defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sandefjord attack 1.37 + Stabaek defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stabaek scores more

37%

level

24%

Sandefjord scores more

38%

Sandefjord at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sandefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Hanche-Olsen

Stabaek · D

8.3

Match Events

24'

Erik Brenden

30'

A. Hanche-Olsen↳ E. Bohinen

36'

Kornelius Hansen

46'

V. Jonsson← K. Hansen

46'

Zé Eduardo← E. Brenden

46'

S. Gussiås← G. Gibson

48'

Emil Palsson

54'

J. Øveraas← Y. Amankwah

55'

Rufo

59'

Emil Palsson

59'

Emil Palsson

73'

Enric Vallès← B. Wembangomo

78'

M. Lundal← T. Lumanza

82'

H. Vetlesen↳ O. Edvardsen

89'

J. Isaksen← L. Kassi

90'

S. Mladenovic← Rufo Herraiz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekSandefjord

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots5

9Corners0

10Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots5

4On Target1

7Off Target3

0Blocked1

10Inside Box2

1Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

391Total Passes407

320Accurate Passes335

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2