Stabaek 3–3 Sandefjord: Result & Stats

Stabaek

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Sandefjord

F. Boli 90+8', 69'

M. Njie 17'

H. Storbæk 79'

M. Fellah 55'

Rufo Herraiz 31'

9/1/2018

Eliteserien · Round 21Nadderud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stabaek37%

×Draw24%

Sandefjord38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchSandefjord

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.51

Stabaek

1.48

Sandefjord

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 38 away

1.09

creates per match

1.37

1.65

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Stabaek

1.09

Sandefjord

1.37

allows per match

Stabaek

1.65

Sandefjord

1.87

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Stabaek-0.09on par

Sandefjord+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Sandefjord →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

62%

Stabaek or Sandefjord

76%

Draw or Sandefjord

63%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

18%

Sandefjord wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

77%

Stabaek 2+ goals

43%

Stabaek 3+ goals

19%

Sandefjord 1+ goals

78%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

44%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

49%

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.65 · 6 matches

Sandefjord away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.09 + Sandefjord defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sandefjord attack 1.37 + Stabaek defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stabaek scores more

37%

level

24%

Sandefjord scores more

38%

Sandefjord at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sandefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

H. Vetlesen

Stabaek · M

7.7

Match Events

17'

M. Njie↳ J. Moe

31'

Rufo Herraiz↳ C. Reppesgård

36'

A. Hanche-Olsen← V. Demidov

44'

Rufo

50'

Eirik Johansen

55'

M. Fellah

60'

F. Valenčič← J. Sæter

66'

68'

69'

76'

78'

79'

80'

H. Vetlesen← E. Bohinen

84'

Marius Hoibraten

85'

L. Grorud← Rufo Herraiz

86'

89'

90'

90+8'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekSandefjord

Overview

50%Possession50%

17Total Shots10

6Corners1

11Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots10

6On Target6

6Off Target3

5Blocked1

11Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

423Total Passes440

309Accurate Passes300

73%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1