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Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb — 1. Division 2026

Stabaek
Stabaek
Preview
16:00
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
10/25/20261. Division1. Division · Round 28Nadderud Stadion
Big match
49%
Stabaek
model favours
49%23%28%

Both teams score in 92% of ODD Ballklubb’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Stabaek49%
×Draw23%
ODD Ballklubb28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
1.83
ODD Ballklubb
1.33

Stabaek creates 38% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 21 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.96
ODD Ballklubb
1.33

allows per match

Stabaek
1.33
ODD Ballklubb
1.71

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
72%
Stabaek or ODD Ballklubb
77%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
51%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
27%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
84%
Stabaek 2+ goals
54%
Stabaek 3+ goals
28%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
74%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
38%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
64%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.96 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.83

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.33 + Stabaek defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stabaek scores more
49%
level
23%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
28%

Stabaek at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Stabaek score first in only 25% of matches
  • 77% of ODD Ballklubb’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (65% and 77% over 2.5)
  • ODD Ballklubb score first in only 31% of matches
  • ODD Ballklubb raise their game against the top half — 40% wins vs the upper half, only 22% vs the lower
  • 65% of Stabaek’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stabaek
WWLWD
Ballklubb
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stabaek face ODD Ballklubb (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Stabaek hosting ODD Ballklubb. Match starts October 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stabaek host ODD Ballklubb at Nadderud Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.