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Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Stabaek
Stabaek
CANC
13:00
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
4/5/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 1Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Stabaek49%
×Draw24%
ODD Ballklubb27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
1.71
ODD Ballklubb
1.19

Stabaek creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.16
ODD Ballklubb
0.94

allows per match

Stabaek
1.43
ODD Ballklubb
2.26

finishing

Stabaek+0.04on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
73%
Stabaek or ODD Ballklubb
76%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
51%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
27%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
82%
Stabaek 2+ goals
51%
Stabaek 3+ goals
24%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
70%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
33%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
65%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.26 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.16 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.71

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Stabaek defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stabaek scores more
49%
level
24%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
27%

Stabaek at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stabaek host ODD Ballklubb

April 5, 2021: Stabaek take on ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stabaek host ODD Ballklubb at Nadderud Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.