Stabaek 0–1 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Stabaek

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

M. Bakenga 69'

8/9/2020

Eliteserien · Round 13Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Stabaek49%

×Draw24%

ODD Ballklubb27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.19

Stabaek

1.71

ODD Ballklubb

1.19

Stabaek creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

1.16

creates per match

0.94

1.43

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Stabaek

1.16

ODD Ballklubb

0.94

allows per match

Stabaek

1.43

ODD Ballklubb

2.26

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Stabaek+0.04on par

ODD Ballklubb+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

73%

Stabaek or ODD Ballklubb

76%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

51%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

27%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

82%

Stabaek 2+ goals

51%

Stabaek 3+ goals

24%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

70%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

33%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

65%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.26 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.16 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.71

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Stabaek defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stabaek scores more

49%

level

24%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

27%

Stabaek at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

E. Ruud

ODD Ballklubb · D

8.0

Match Events

52'

Marcus Andre Kaasa

65'

F. Nordkvelle← K. Jakobsen

69'

M. Bakenga↳ E. Ruud

70'

J. Øveraas← Y. Amankwah

70'

K. Kinoshita← E. Botheim

82'

R. Gall← K. Hansen

82'

M. Lundal← H. Vetlesen

85'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekODD

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots16

5Corners7

14Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots16

2On Target7

5Off Target4

4Blocked5

5Inside Box9

6Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

361Total Passes509

266Accurate Passes422

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3