Stabaek 2–1 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Stabaek

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

T. Brochmann 85' (pen)

O. Omoijuanfo 70'

T. Børven 53'

5/21/2018

Eliteserien · Round 11Nadderud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stabaek46%

×Draw24%

ODD Ballklubb30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.31

Stabaek

1.66

ODD Ballklubb

1.31

Stabaek creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

1.09

creates per match

0.98

1.65

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Stabaek

1.09

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Stabaek

1.65

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Stabaek-0.09on par

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

70%

Stabaek or ODD Ballklubb

76%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

54%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

24%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

81%

Stabaek 2+ goals

49%

Stabaek 3+ goals

23%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

73%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

38%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

60%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.65 · 6 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.09 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.66

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Stabaek defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stabaek scores more

46%

level

24%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

30%

Stabaek at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Moe

Stabaek · D

7.5

Match Events

31'

Tobias Borchgrevink Borkeeiet

36'

Martin Broberg

46'

J. Samuelsen← M. Broberg

53'

T. Børven↳ E. Rashani

63'

O. Aga← F. Boli

70'

F. Nordkvelle← M. Kaasa

70'

O. Omoijuanfo↳ R. Hernández

75'

Elbasan Rashani

79'

B. Njie← E. Rashani

84'

Vegard Bergan

85'

T. BrochmannPenalty

89'

A. Hanche-Olsen← T. Brochmann

90'

Jeppe Moe

90'

Bilal Njie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekODD

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots7

8Corners4

15Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots7

5On Target2

7Off Target3

5Blocked2

11Inside Box6

6Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

376Total Passes316

272Accurate Passes203

72%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

3Offsides7

Eliteserien: Stabaek 2–1 ODD Ballklubb

Stabaek beat ODD Ballklubb 2-1 in Eliteserien on May 21, 2018.

Goals: T. Børven (53'), O. Omoijuanfo (70'), T. Brochmann (85' pen).

Stabaek controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Nadderud in Baerum.

Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stabaek 2–1 ODD Ballklubb