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Stabaek vs Moss — 1. Division 2026

Stabaek
Stabaek
Preview
18:00
Moss
Moss
9/5/20261. Division1. Division · Round 21Nadderud Stadion
Big match
55%
Stabaek
model favours
55%21%24%

Moss score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stabaek55%
×Draw21%
Moss24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
2.04
Moss
1.27

Stabaek creates 61% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 53 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.96
Moss
1.21

allows per match

Stabaek
1.33
Moss
2.11

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par
Moss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Moss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
76%
Stabaek or Moss
79%
Draw or Moss
45%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
33%
Moss wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
87%
Stabaek 2+ goals
60%
Stabaek 3+ goals
33%
Moss 1+ goals
72%
Moss 2+ goals
36%
Moss 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
70%
Moss (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Moss away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.11 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.96 + Moss defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.04

Moss attack 1.21 + Stabaek defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Stabaek scores more
55%
level
21%
Moss scores more
24%

Stabaek at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 85% of Moss’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Stabaek score first in only 25% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (65% and 85% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 77% of Moss’s matches
  • 65% of Stabaek’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stabaek
WWLWD
Moss
LLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stabaek vs Moss — Match Preview

Stabaek face Moss on September 5, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stabaek host Moss at Nadderud Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.